About Me

I am a PhD candidate at the European University Institute in Florence (Italy), supervised by Professor Miriam Golden and Professor Elias Dinas. My research focuses on the effects of environmental damage and climate change on voting behavior in Latin America, particularly the trade-off between environmental concerns and economic interests for both voters and elites.

In addition to my research, I teach Basic Statistics and Mathematics, and practical classes on Game Theory at the School of Transnational Governance in Florence, and Applied Causal Inference at the University of Lucerne.

Lastly, I collaborate with the NGOs Alianza por la Solidaridad and ActionAid on projects focused on climate justice. My work with them includes contributing to policy analysis, leading educational sessions on climate justice for high school and undergraduate students, and participating in public events and forums—such as sessions at the European Commission and the UN climate conferences—to help bring academic insights into broader discussions.

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Fernández, J. J., Orriols, L., & Abril, P. (2025). Economic vulnerability and emotions toward climate change: A case study of Spain. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 102537. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494425000209

Working Papers

From Economic Voting to Environmental Backlash: The Mayan Train and Electoral Dynamics in Mexico

Author: Paloma Abril Poncela

How do voters evaluate governments that deliver economic growth at environmental cost? Classic models of retrospective voting expect citizens to reward prosperity, yet development often comes at the expense of the environment, generating backlash. I argue that accountability under these trade-offs hinges on whether citizens directly capture the gains from growth. When benefits are diffuse and environmental losses are visible and concentrated, voters punish governments; when benefits are direct and compensatory, they reward them even amid ecological damage. I test this argument using Mexico’s Mayan Train, a macro-project that spurred regional expansion alongside severe deforestation. Combining satellite, firm, and electoral data in a difference-in-differences framework, I show that voters rewarded growth without deforestation, punished growth with ecological destruction, and rewarded the government where expropriation payments provided direct compensation. This helps clarify why in the literature, environmental damage is politically prioritized in some contexts but outweighed by development in others: it depends on the distributive characteristics of growth.

Presented at EPSA 2025, and POBI 2025

When Oil Meets the Environment: How Gender Shapes Environmental Voting in Ecuador

Authors: Paloma Abril Poncela, Sara Dybesland and Deniz Tufur

This paper examines when and why men and women vote differently on environmental matters, seeking to identify the determinants of the environmental gender gap. While research has documented gender differences in environmental attitudes, less is known about how these translate into actual voting behavior, particularly in contexts shaped by resource dependence. We address this gap through the case of Ecuador’s 2023 national referendum, which asked voters whether to halt oil extraction in Yasuní National Park, a highly productive yet protected area of the Amazon. Using official electoral data, where voting booths are segregated by gender, and applying linear regression models and two-way fixed effects estimations, I find that in areas without oil extraction, women were significantly more likely than men to support halting extraction. However, this gender gap disappears in extractive regions, where both men and women show higher support for continued extraction. Further analysis confirms that the stronger the local presence of oil industries, the greater the overall opposition to halting extraction, but that this opposition does not differ by gender. To deepen these findings, we propose a follow-up survey in Ecuador that will explore why the gender gap exists in non-oil regions but not in oil-producing ones. The survey will test two sets of hypotheses: one centered on material incentives and another on environmental motivations, to better understand how local and individual economic contexts shape gendered environmental preferences.

Election and Deforestation: A Systematic Literature Review of Empirical and Theoretical Evidence

Authors: Paloma Abril Poncela and Rens Chazottes

This systematic literature review explores how and why elections influence deforestation dynamics, synthesizing theoretical arguments and empirical findings from political ecology and environmental governance research. While democratic elections are often presumed to foster environmental accountability, the link between electoral processes and forest outcomes remains theoretically contested and empirically underexplored. Drawing on a range of interdisciplinary studies, we identify four dominant explanations connecting elections to reduced deforestation: electoral accountability, economic development, strengthened property rights, and local devolution. We highlight how these mechanisms operate differently across political regimes, governance levels, and institutional contexts. The review critically examines the limitations of the dominant "blueprint" approach to democratic institutions, which overlooks the importance of contextual norms and informal institutions. By clarifying conceptual assumptions, mapping key debates, and assessing empirical evidence, this review aims to advance a more grounded and nuanced understanding of how electoral politics shape forest conservation outcomes.

Environmental Mobilization of the Indigenous in Latin America

Author: Paloma Abril Poncela

Indigenous populations in Latin America exhibit significantly higher levels of environmental concern compared to their non-indigenous counterparts, often resulting in a greater propensity for environmental protests. However, existing research on political mobilization and climate activism has yet to fully explore why indigenous communities are more likely to engage in environmental activism. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether material interests or cultural values are more influential in driving environmental activism among indigenous communities in Latin America. Previous research has typically focused on either material interests or identity values separately, without adequately exploring their relative importance. This research bridges this gap by examining both factors concurrently, in a context where both might play an important role as mobilization drivers. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study includes fieldwork in the urban and rural areas of Quintana Roo, Mexico, leveraging semi-structured interviews and survey experiments. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of environmental activism by identifying the primary drivers of mobilization. Ultimately, the research underscores the critical need for inclusive environmental policies that recognize and address the concerns of indigenous populations.

Green Voting without a Green Party

Authors: Lluis Orriols and Paloma Abril

Presented at APSA 2024

This study explores green voting in Spain across municipal, regional, and national levels. While surveys often reveal high levels of climate concern among individuals, there remains a gap in understanding how this sentiment translates into voting behavior, and the conditions under which it manifests. Our research aims to find out how individuals weigh a candidate's environmental stance against other issues like public services, decentralization, and immigration. Additionally, we aim to discern whether voters exhibit a preference for candidates proposing environmentally conscious policies, even when associated with potential economic costs. Employing a conjoint experiment methodology with panel data across three waves coinciding with municipal, regional, and national elections in Spain, we can identify the respondents’ preferences across a range of candidate attributes. Notably, our findings reveal that voters prefer candidates that express environmental consciousness without advocating economically burdensome measures. The results are identical at the different levels of governance, shedding light on the nuanced dynamics of green voting in Spain.