About Me

I am a PhD candidate at the European University Institute in Florence (Italy), supervised by Professor Miriam Golden and Professor Elias Dinas. My research focuses on the effects of environmental damage and climate change on voting behavior in Latin America, particularly the trade-off between environmental concerns and economic interests for both voters and elites.

In addition to my research, I teach Basic Statistics and Mathematics, and practical classes on Game Theory at the School of Transnational Governance in Florence. In the upcoming semester, I will also teach Applied Causal Inference at the University of Lucerne.

Lastly, I collaborate with the NGOs Alianza por la Solidaridad and ActionAid on projects focused on climate justice. My work with them includes contributing to policy analysis, leading educational sessions on climate justice for high school and undergraduate students, and participating in public events and forums—such as sessions at the European Commission and the UN climate conferences—to help bring academic insights into broader discussions.

Peer-Reviewed Articles

Fernández, J. J., Orriols, L., & Abril, P. (2025). Economic vulnerability and emotions toward climate change: A case study of Spain. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 102537. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494425000209

Working Papers

Green Voting without a Green Party

Authors: Lluis Orriols and Paloma Abril

Presented at APSA 2024

This study explores green voting in Spain across municipal, regional, and national levels. While surveys often reveal high levels of climate concern among individuals, there remains a gap in understanding how this sentiment translates into voting behavior, and the conditions under which it manifests. Our research aims to find out how individuals weigh a candidate's environmental stance against other issues like public services, decentralization, and immigration. Additionally, we aim to discern whether voters exhibit a preference for candidates proposing environmentally conscious policies, even when associated with potential economic costs. Employing a conjoint experiment methodology with panel data across three waves coinciding with municipal, regional, and national elections in Spain, we can identify the respondents’ preferences across a range of candidate attributes. Notably, our findings reveal that voters prefer candidates that express environmental consciousness without advocating economically burdensome measures. The results are identical at the different levels of governance, shedding light on the nuanced dynamics of green voting in Spain.

From Economic Voting to Environmental Backlash: The Mayan Train and Electoral Dynamics in Mexico

Author: Paloma Abril Poncela

This study examines how the Mayan Train’s economic and environmental effects shaped voting behavior in the presidential elections along its route. The Mayan Train, one of Mexico’s most ambitious infrastructure projects, has sparked intense debate over its socio-environmental impacts. It offers a unique lens to study the intersection of economic development and environmental politics. While such projects promise economic benefits, they can also impose significant environmental costs, influencing political preferences in complex ways. Using spatial and intensity-based difference-in-differences approaches, I analyze electoral outcomes in areas affected by the train. In regions with pre-existing rights of way, where minimal deforestation accompanied economic benefits and infrastructure improvements, voters rewarded the incumbent party, consistent with economic voting theory. Conversely, in areas marked by extensive deforestation and environmental degradation, even if economic development was present, voters punished the incumbent and significantly increased their support for the Green Party. These findings show how when voters face a trade-off between economic development and environmental harm, the latter can outweigh the perceived benefits and generate an environmental backlash.

Presented at EPSA 2025

Environmental Mobilization of the Indigenous in Latin America

Author: Paloma Abril Poncela

Indigenous populations in Latin America exhibit significantly higher levels of environmental concern compared to their non-indigenous counterparts, often resulting in a greater propensity for environmental protests. However, existing research on political mobilization and climate activism has yet to fully explore why indigenous communities are more likely to engage in environmental activism. This study addresses this gap by investigating whether material interests or cultural values are more influential in driving environmental activism among indigenous communities in Latin America. Previous research has typically focused on either material interests or identity values separately, without adequately exploring their relative importance. This research bridges this gap by examining both factors concurrently, in a context where both might play an important role as mobilization drivers. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach, the study includes fieldwork in the urban and rural areas of Quetzaltenango, Guatemala, leveraging semi-structured interviews and survey experiments. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of environmental activism by identifying the primary drivers of mobilization. Ultimately, the research underscores the critical need for inclusive environmental policies that recognize and address the concerns of indigenous populations.

Election and Deforestation: A Systematic Literature Review of Empirical and Theoretical Evidence

Authors: Paloma Abril Poncela and Rens Chazottes

This systematic literature review explores how and why elections influence deforestation dynamics, synthesizing theoretical arguments and empirical findings from political ecology and environmental governance research. While democratic elections are often presumed to foster environmental accountability, the link between electoral processes and forest outcomes remains theoretically contested and empirically underexplored. Drawing on a range of interdisciplinary studies, we identify four dominant explanations connecting elections to reduced deforestation: electoral accountability, economic development, strengthened property rights, and local devolution. We highlight how these mechanisms operate differently across political regimes, governance levels, and institutional contexts. The review critically examines the limitations of the dominant "blueprint" approach to democratic institutions, which overlooks the importance of contextual norms and informal institutions. By clarifying conceptual assumptions, mapping key debates, and assessing empirical evidence, this review aims to advance a more grounded and nuanced understanding of how electoral politics shape forest conservation outcomes.

Additional Ongoing Projects

Replication of The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy (with Simon Hix)

Replication of Mass Repression and Political Loyalty: Evidence from Stalin’s ‘Terror by Hunger’ (with Martin Dybdahl)